ClueTrain Manifesto - 10 years after ...

As I promised almost a year ago, I read the new edition of „The ClueTrain Manifesto” issued as 10 years anniversary edition in 2009 with the introduction written by the authors of original Manifesto. This very introduction is exactly what makes this edition so interesting.

Let me however, start with short summary about the original book. When it was first published in 1999 it was like a storm for corporate marketing strategies. Long before Web 2.0, and starting with 95 thesis it predicted the revolution brought about by blogs, forums and all open communication platforms that started to appear.

We were reading it and holding our breaths — it had such a powerful impact. We were almost certain that the ominous slogan: „The end of business as usual” will come true in the next 2-3 years ...

So ... what has happened after these 10 years... Certainly we do not yet see the end of business as usual ... and as one of the authors asked: „Did the original edition of CLUETRAIN commit the Fallacy of Hyperbolic Subtitle?”

As it usually happens, the answer is not straightforward and simple. From one point of view we do have Web 2.0 and socionomics, on the other hand „Huge corporations still stalk the earth. We still report to hierarchical structures that cut us paychecks in exchange for obedience” (DW)

The events of last 10 years show that the path to the new way of doing business is paved with obstacles — and the delicate interplay of successful prophecies with false once is the essential content of the reflections upon the decade after Cluetrain...

If I was to summarize, what are the authors feelings, I would probably say:

David Weinberger — is positive and full of hope and optimism. However his matured optimism knows that we must fight to defend optimism. It is certainly not automatic...

Doc Searls — is positive, but with a grain of salt. He admits the value of growing number of relationships, he sees the potential of his VRM vs. old CRM — yet he admits that „attention economy” still grows in power — only with changed medium: „Transaction we already have. Conversation we are only beginning too develop. (...) Relationship is the wild frontier. Closed "social" environments like MySpace and Facebook are good places to experiment with some of what we'll need, but as of today they're still silos. Think of them as AOL 2.0”

Chris Locke — seems to be less optimistic. „Between the Bubble and the Towers, business cooled considerably in its fanatical whoring after e-commerce billions”. He mocks of certain events of the decade (like Oprah Winfrey and some of her almost occult programs) . He ends his sarcastic essey by a quote from Bob Dylan song: „Don't follow leaders. Watch your parking meters” :-)

Rick Levine — is perhaps also a bit moderate. „How does it taste”? He asks — because he knows we can't ask such questions easily other the net. While he notices the positives (access, data scale, usability and participation) but as he expresses it: „The details we neglected (in Cluetrain prophecy — note by MS) to address were manifest”. It seems Rick rediscovered the power of physical relations between people — and knows well that this is unattainable in the Web...

So — 100 years later — and we have quite mixed impressions...

And we must fight for optimism...

BTW, the 10 years edition finally explained the name of the original book:

„Doc was reminded of a Silicon Valley company about which a friend had said, „The clue train stopped there four times a day, and they never took delivery” :-)

ClueTrain in a new light ...

I read "ClueTrain Manifesto" couple of times since 1999 when the book was first published. And always when I return to it, after some time, it appears to show some fresh aspects, some fresh views. Rick Levine, Christopher Locke, Doc Searls and my favorite, David Weinberger created something worth of return. If you still did not read it - its free: HERE.

If you have no time for the entire book, just read only these: 95 theses ....

My favorite two citations from the book:
"Companies need to realize their markets are often laughing. At them. "
"Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy."

This book is compulsory reading for all sales people in my company ....

See the citation:

"Although a system may cease to exist in the legal sense or as a structure of power, its values (or anti-values), its philosophy, its teachings remain in us. They rule our thinking, our conduct, our attitude to others.
The situation is a demonic paradox: we have toppled the system but we still carry its genes. "

Ryszard Kapuscinski, Polish journalist, 1991

Doubt it's still true? Look arround - Think about it ....

The Bubble of American Supremacy by George Soros

That was my third book of Soros. In it Soros goes high with his critique of George Bush and latest events involving US on a global scene. He argues that after September 11th attacks, American government abused its principles and launched the mistaken "War on Terror". Even though I had the opposite view - I must admit that Soros's arguments are very convincing and after reading the book, one starts to questions the view that Iraq war was just war and that Bush administration was legitimate in that action....

But the book has a dose of optimism. It is in Soros constant promotion of Open Society idea.The part of the book describes his activities in promoting the Open Society in Russia and other Central and Eastern Europe countries. The book has its special meaning today - in the year of the presidential elections in US....
Strongly recommended !!!

The New Paradigm for Financial Markets - conclusions

The book itself is not very long, so I could finish it while coming back from Paris.
In the later part of the book Soros elaborates on his theory of reflexivity and how it helps in the understanding of the current financial crisis. The theory replaces traditional "equilibrium" theories that laid ground to strong market fundamentalisms - that claim that market are always right. He proves that sometimes they are not.....
The book concludes with interesting suggestions, addressed particularly toward market regulators. One of his propositions says that regulators should care more about credit expansions and not just about monetary face of financial system.

The book is great - a year ago I read Alchemy of Finance, but for me it was more technical, so I even did not dare to post a review here. The "New Paradigm" is different. It is intriguing and breathtaking.....

Last but not least - it's nice to hear Soros talking about the ideas and about the size of the crisis.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june08/soros_05-13.html

Reading while in Paris: Gorge Soros's "The New Paradigm"

"The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What It Means"

This is the book I started to read in Paris. It's quite different from my "holiday's readings" that you can see here. Soros analysis of what we perceive today as the financial crisis is deep. No question about that.

Traditionally, we think the current crisis is just "subprime" lending crisis. It is not. This is just the effect. The cause is deeper and has roots in processes and trends almost 10 years old.

Particularly I was intrigued by the conclusion that the cut of the rates of federal funds by Fed (from 6.5% to 3.5%) in the course of just few months of 2000, caused by Internet bubble, and the trend that get it down to 1% by 2003, has created a long term bubble in housing markets....
The examples he gives, are just breathtaking and almost unbelievable....

As in "Alchemy of Finance" he writes about his life's experiences and how thay influence his philosophy and activity. I know, Soros is controversial. But he explicitly says about the philosopher who was his master: Karl Popper. For this very reason I value Soros, as I'm also a pupil of Popper, and his Open Society ideas ....

I'm in the mid of the book now, I will write more when finished.