This is a translation (which I made with help of AI to do it fast) of an extremely thoughtful article by Marcin Wyrwał - Polish war correspondent in Ukraine (See Marcin on X). The original text is here).
A note - I did not get permission from Marcin to do so. I hope I do not make any harm though ...
Donald Trump promises to end the war. In reality, he will drag us into an even bigger one
At the Republican convention, Donald Trump promised to end all wars, including the one in Ukraine. At first glance, his proposal seems brilliantly simple. In reality, it is simplistic and guarantees dragging not only Ukraine but all of Europe into a much bloodier conflict.
During the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee, the presidential candidate, Donald Trump, once again made populist promises. One of them is particularly dangerous—not only for Ukraine but for our entire region. It concerns ending the war in Ukraine.
Trump, in a single sentence, promised to end not only this but "every international crisis caused by the current administration." The promise to end all crises is classic populist fluff, unsupported by reality, and aimed at applause from less informed voters. However, the promise to end the war in Ukraine might actually come true if Trump comes to power. The issue is that, in Trump's proposed formula, it is a ready recipe for bloodshed on a much larger scale and territory than Ukraine alone.
Trump's plan to end the war has been known since at least April. In private conversations described by "The Washington Post", the Republican presidential candidate suggested that to achieve this, it would be enough to give Russia Crimea and the other territories it currently occupies in Ukraine. In the same conversations, Trump said that such a plan would allow both sides to "save face", and that the residents of the occupied territories "would not mind" joining Russia, which clearly indicates a complete lack of understanding of the situation.
Let's focus on the core part of Trump's plan—peace in exchange for territories handed over to Moscow.
The problem is that Ukraine has already been through this, and each time, the result of such a scenario has been escalation on a much larger scale. Explaining this is a bit more complex than Trump's rally slogans.
How the West Allowed Ukraine to Be Pushed into the Gray Zone
Ukraine liberated itself from Russia on August 24, 1991, with the adoption of the declaration of independence by the Ukrainian parliament. The Ukrainian nation gained freedom, but this development was also extremely beneficial for Poland. Until then, we were the buffer for Europe and the first strike zone for Russia in an attack on Europe (of course, for several decades, we were also in the Eastern Bloc, which would still end in conflict on our territory).
